Your Next Oil Change Is About to Get a Lot More Expensive

Oil supply is about to get tight.

While everyone was busy arguing about EVs and tariffs, a supply chain crisis quietly set up camp under your hood. AutoZone sent a memo to the industry calling this the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America, with supplies down roughly 40 percent. If your car was built in the last decade, this is your problem now.

The U.S. sources roughly half of its imported Group III base oils from the Middle East. Group III is the synthetic base stock that goes into the low-viscosity oils most modern engines require, specifically 0W-8, 0W-16, and 0W-20. The conflict in Iran shut down access to those supplies. Nearly 44 percent of American Group III imports come from three suppliers sitting in the Persian Gulf. Those suppliers are not shipping at normal capacity, and there is no quick replacement waiting in the wings.

Toyota and Nissan have already started rationing. Toyota issued a service bulletin in April warning parts and service managers that Genuine Toyota Motor Oil in 0W-8 and 0W-16 grades faces supply constraints. Nissan followed, limiting 5W-30 supply to 70 percent of last year’s volume and 0W-20 to just 55 percent. South Korean refiners, who might otherwise help fill the gap, also depend on Middle Eastern crude.

The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association says this does not resolve itself until mid-2027 at the earliest, with Gulf-sourced Group III oils potentially running dry by June. The oil supply is getting tight and some shops are already stockpiling. Retailers are raising prices ahead of any actual inventory impact, which means consumers are already starting to feel the squeeze even though the real impact comes later.

Automakers have spent the last decade engineering engines around ultra-thin synthetic oils to chase fuel economy targets, creating a dependency on a very specific type of base stock from a very specific part of the world that is prone to conflict. If you are due for an oil change, do not wait.